SPC MD 2410

MD 2410 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS AND THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE Mesoscale Discussion 2410 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026 Areas affected...Portions of southern/eastern New Mexico into far west Texas and the western Texas Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 252048Z - 252315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated severe hail/wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado may occur this afternoon into early evening. Watch issuance appears unlikely at this time. DISCUSSION...Compared to locations farther north in NM, parts of far west TX have experienced stronger heating in the presence of greater low-level moisture (surface dewpoints generally in the upper 50s to low 60s). Convective initiation is underway across the higher terrain of far west TX/southeast NM. A combination of moderate instability and deep-layer shear should prove sufficient for thunderstorm organization, including the potential for a supercell or two capable of producing isolated severe hail/wind. However, better forcing for ascent associated with an ejec...