SPC MD 2411

MD 2411 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EAST/SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND PARTS OF FAR WEST TEXAS Mesoscale Discussion 2411 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0820 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026 Areas affected...east/southeast New Mexico and parts of Far West Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 260120Z - 260415Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Scattered storms should persist for several hours, with a few producing hail over 1.00" diameter. A brief/weak tornado may occur as well. DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a stationary front from the northern TX Panhandle into east-central NM. South of this boundary, temperatures are in the low to mid 60s F, while dewpoints remain in the 55-60 F range, resulting in a high RH/low LCL environment. While the upper trough lifts out of the area tonight, low-level southeasterlies will persist, with 30-35 kt out of the southeast just above the surface. This may support 0-1 km SRH values over 100 m2/s2. Effective shear remains at or above 35-40 kt this evening, while MLCAPE is generally in the 500 to 1200 J/kg range. The 00Z AMA sounding shows a cool/moist profile, but still unstable, with veer...