Summer crop season closes with below-average yield prospects

The 2026 summer crop season is drawing to a close, with harvesting well advanced across most of Europe. EU yield forecasts have changed relatively little since last month and are below the five-year average for most crops. Slight revisions further downwards have been made in some regions where persistent adverse soil moisture conditions reduced yields and delayed harvests.

The new winter cropping season faces contrasting challenges. Low soil moisture is hampering rapeseed emergence and winter cereal establishment across drought-affected regions, resulting in uneven crop development. In contrast, excessive rainfall in the Baltic states and Finland has delayed winter crop sowing, with potential reductions in the winter crop area, particularly in the Baltic states.

Forecast rainfall across most of Europe may improve soil moisture and support winter crop establishment, while drier conditions forecast in the Baltic states could help mitigate waterlogging.

Persistently low soil moisture across parts of western, central and south-eastern Europe is hampering rapeseed emergence and early development, while raising concerns for winter cereal establishment. In contrast, prolonged rainfall in the Baltic states and Finland has caused waterlogging, delaying winter crop sowing and locally preventing the completion of harvesting.

Persistent rainfall deficits and low soil moisture have hampered rapeseed sowing and emergence across several regions. Winter cereal sowing has generally progressed within the optimal window, although further rainfall is needed to support seedbed preparation and crop establishment.