SPC MD 2412

MD 2412 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS Mesoscale Discussion 2412 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026 Areas affected...parts of southeastern New Mexico and southwestern Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 271917Z - 272145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe thunderstorm development appears possible by 3-4 PM MDT into early evening near the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains vicinity. These may pose a risk for large hail and localized strong surface gusts. DISCUSSION...Destabilization is ongoing in response to continuing insolation along the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, where surface dew points are in the upper 50s to near 60 F, beneath modestly cool cyclonic mid-level flow. Orographic forcing, aided by lift associated with weak low-level warm advection, is already supporting the initiation of isolated thunderstorm development. This is likely to continue into early evening. Beneath 30-40+ kt west-southwesterly around 7-8 km AGL and higher, deep-layer shear near the higher terrain is strong, with elongated hodographs....