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European Commission — Joint Research Centre joint-research-centre.ec.europa.eu

El Niño weather extremes worsen food security in East Africa and Central America and threaten next season crops in Southern Africa and South America

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Main findings of the September global overview

  • Southern Africa concludes a strong 2026 summer season with cereal production reaching 43.4 million tonnes, nearly 10% above the five-year average. Moreover, winter wheat prospects remain favourable in South Africa and Zimbabwe. However, these favourable outcomes face a severe threat as the region prepares for the 2026/2027 summer planting season. An exceptionally strong El Niño is projected to trigger historic rainfall deficits through December 2026, surpassing levels seen since 1950 (OCHA). With forecast models warning of severe dryness, continuous monitoring is critical (JRC ASAP forecast warnings for crops and JRC ASAP forecast warnings for rangelands).
  • Between June and September 2026, El Niño-induced drought and high temperatures degraded crop and pasture yields across East Africa. On the contrary, forecasts for the upcoming October to December period indicate a high likelihood of above-average rainfall and potential flooding in the Horn of Africa. In war-torn nations like Sudan and South Sudan, climate shocks exacerbate violence and displacement, driving millions toward famine. According to the latest IPC update, 14 Sudanese areas face an imminent risk of famine under worst-case scenarios, necessitating urgent humanitarian intervention to prevent total regional collapse.

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    European Commission — Joint Research Centre — imported from official source
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    November 03, 2026 16:33
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